75°F
Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedJun-22-2017 10:06 
 

NOAA Albany Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 221054
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
654 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels through today. Then, warmer and more
humid conditions return for Friday, along with the likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain locally
heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue Friday night as a cold front moves into the
region. Mainly drier weather expected for Saturday, but a chance
of showers will linger south of Albany as the cold front pushes
through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 623 AM EDT, Mainly clear skies and light winds across the
area early this morning with high pressure in control.
Temperatures are on the cool side, generally in the 50s with
some 40s in the higher terrain.

Dry conditions with comfortable humidity levels will persist
through much of today, as high pressure over the region this
morning shifts eastward and weakens. High level clouds will
increase later in the day, ahead of an approaching warm front to
our south and west. A few showers may make it into parts of the
area before sunset, well north and west of Albany. High
temperatures will be close to normal for late June.

Chances for showers and few thunderstorms will increase
tonight as the warm front moves into the region. There is some
elevated instability forecast, so will continue to mention
isolated thunder. Best forcing looks to be across the
Adirondacks, where likely pops area mention, with chance farther
south. It will start to become more humid by late tonight with
mild overnight lows due to the increase in clouds and moisture.
Lows are expected to be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday still shaping up to be an active day in terms of shower
and thunderstorm activity, but the potential for strong to
severe storms seems more muddled at this time. Latest guidance
indicating we may not actually get into a true warm sector
during the day Friday, as there will be plenty of clouds around
associated with moisture streaming northeast from the remnants
of Cindy, which will be moving into the Tennessee Valley. The
extra clouds may limit instability, despite increasing southerly
flow in the low levels.

A pre-frontal trough still appears to be the main trigger for
showers and thunderstorms to develop, but locally heavy rainfall
may end up being more of a threat than severe storms. A surge
of anomalously high PWATs of +2 to +3 STDEV will move in in
Friday well ahead of the remnants of Cindy. Forecast sounding
profiles indicating tall/skinny CAPE along with rising warm
cloud depths to around 11-12 kft. Some wet downbursts cannot be
ruled out given sufficient instability, with generally around
500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE expected, although the models are not in
good agreement. The Storm Prediction Center has updated their
outlook to mention a Marginal Risk for severe storms in our
area, which given the latest guidance seems very reasonable.
Will mention the chance for some strong/gusty winds in the HWO,
but will also focus on locally heavy rain and urban/poor
drainage flooding with potential isolated flash flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger well into Friday night,
as there will continue to be sufficient deep moisture and some
instability ahead of the main cold front that will likely not
clear the entire area by Saturday morning. Any conditional
severe threat should diminish during the evening, but the
locally heavy rainfall potential will continue until the cold
front passes through. It will be mild and muggy much of the
night, although areas north and west of Albany will start to
cool and dry out towards sunrise Saturday behind the cold front.

Saturday looks to be mainly dry across much of the region,
although will need to hold on to chance pops for areas south of
Albany due to some moisture from the remnants of Cindy moving
through. Models differ with the QPF associated with Cindy,
although either way it should be moving rather quickly by
Saturday as it will get caught up in the W/SW zonal flow aloft.
Any rainfall across southern areas should end by early
afternoon. Elsewhere just an isolated shower or two will be
possible as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Temperatures will be close to normal, with humidity levels
dropping through the day. Dry and cooler conditions expected
Saturday night with surface ridging across the Ohio Valley into
the Northeast, although a stray shower will be possible north
and west of Albany.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance is in general agreement there will be a longwave
trough over the region though the period with the trough
deepening as short waves move though the flow. What remains
uncertain is the timing and amplitude of the individual short
waves which impacts the timing of boundaries across the region.
Have favored a blended model approach for the forecast. Overall,
the better chances for convection will be in the afternoon into
the evening with the heating of the day especially Monday and
Tuesday with falling heights across the region.

As for temperatures, slightly below normal by around 5 degrees
or so with highs generally from the mid 60s to near 80 degrees
and lows in upper 40s to upper 50s across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the region weakens and get surpressed
southward today. A warm front will approach from the southwest
late in the day with increasing mid and high clouds late in the
afternoon. Clouds will thicken and lower in the evening with
chances for showers increasing overnight. Have addressed at
this time with VCSH in the TAFs.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. If a storm
impacts a TAF site MVFR conditions would be expected.

Flow will develop from the south to west at 6 to 10 knots by
late morning into the afternoon with winds weakening in the
evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels through today. Then, warmer and more
humid conditions return for Friday, along with the likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain locally
heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue Friday night as a cold front moves into the
region. Mainly drier weather expected for Saturday, but a chance
of showers will linger south of Albany as the cold front pushes
through.

Minimum relative humidity values today are expected to be
around 40 to 50 percent, increasing to between 90 and 100
percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Friday will be around 55
to 70 percent.

Winds today will be westerly around 5 to 10 mph, shifting to
the south tonight. Winds on Friday will remain southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts near 25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions expected through today for much of the area. A
few showers will be possible well west of Albany late in the
day.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will start to move in
tonight, and especially on Friday as a frontal system gradually
moves across the area. It will become more humid, so there is
the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Friday
evening. Some urban/poor drainage flooding and isolated flash
flooding will be possible with thunderstorms. Basin average
rainfall forecast to be around a half to three quarters of an
inch with locally higher amounts where persistent thunderstorms
occur.

Mainly dry weather then expected through the first half of the
weekend with just a few showers around, but chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms will increase from Sunday into Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGFL airport observation has been intermittently missing again
as technicians continue to troubleshoot. We will continue to
monitor and update this statement as needed.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
EQUIPMENT...

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion