60°F
Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedJul-25-2017 00:41 
 

NOAA Albany Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 250150
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
950 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and cool
temperatures to the region through Tuesday. Clearing skies and
warmer temperatures will arrive for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms in central NY have weakened as they have moved
into our cooler more stable airmass. There is a good area of
showers tracking into the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills
and into the Capital District. Indicating showers likely in
those areas through the rest of this evening and keeping
scattered showers in most other areas as other new showers could
develop later tonight and affect us. No big changes to
temperatures and sky cover. Previous AFD has a few more details
and is below...

Damp, cool weather will persist through tonight.

Will include some patchy fog tonight under moist conditions.
But with more clouds than clearing expected, anticipate that any
fog will not be more than patchy.

Given expansive cloud cover temperatures will not drop too much.
Lows in the 40s highest elevations to 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface and upper level trough will take its time working
across the region Tuesday. Thus the chance for showers continues
through Tuesday, with a diminishing trend likely through the
afternoon. Instability remains nil tomorrow, so no thunder in
the forecast.

Respectable high pressure for July - 1024 mb - builds in for
Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing clearing skies and
comfortable humidity. Given degree of clearing Tuesday night,
some patchy fog is likely. High temperatures Wednesday will
still be a few degrees below normal, but with abundant sunshine
it will feel quite a bit warmer than today and tomorrow.

A cold front approaches the region Wednesday night. We should be
able to keep the rain at bay for Wednesday night, although far
northern areas could see a slight chance of showers. Under the
influence of southerly flow, temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal.

Differences among models show up on Thursday. The ECMWF brings a
potent surface low toward the region, while the GFS favors a
weak trough crossing the CWA. At this point will maintain chance
POPS of SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper energy and a cold front tracks through our region Thursday
night into Friday with showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday
night.  Just some lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday as the front and upper energy exits. Highs Friday in the mid
70s to around 80 but around 70 to lower 70s higher terrain.

The mean upper trough axis slowly builds east of our region Saturday
through Monday with generally dry conditions, high pressure and more
sun than clouds. Temperatures are expected to be a little below
normal behind the cold front even with the sunshine with the mean
flat upper troughing.

Highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80 but cooler
in higher terrain. High pressure potentially begins to build east
and warm advection begins Monday.  Highs Monday in the lower to mid
80s but mid to upper 70s higher terrain. There are some signals in
some long range guidance and ensembles that the upper energy that
tracks east on Friday could strengthen and cut off from steering
flow, which could result in the weekend being cooler, cloudier and a
few showers but will have to keep an eye on trends in long range
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Damp easterly flow continues through the TAF period /00Z
Wednesday/ with generally MVFR cigs and scattered showers. There
could be some IFR conditions toward morning. Depending on how
much low level moisture is around tonight, fog will be possible.
MVFR ceilings and periods of MVFR visibilities are expected
with scattered showers Tuesday morning and afternoon. Winds
will be mainly from the E-NE between 5 and 10 knots through the
period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low pressure
gradually moves across the region. Clearing and drier weather
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. No fire weather related
concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Tonight and Tuesday expect chances of showers with only a
slight chance of a thunderstorm confined to the western 1/3rd of
the forecast area. Apart from a rogue thunderstorm,
precipitation amounts look to be less one quarter inch.

Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for
rainfall Thursday and Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/NAS
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion