69°F
Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedSep-25-2017 01:58 
 

NOAA Albany Forecast Discussion

014
FXUS61 KALY 250540
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. High
temperatures could approach or even break record levels through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1230 AM EDT, quick update to the forecast early this
morning to freshen up the hourly temps to reflect recent obs.
Further details regarding the forecast follow...

As of 920 PM EDT, skies remain clear, with winds trending to
calm. Temps have already started to drop off across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, and hilltowns across western New
England, where temps are now in the lower/mid 60s, while
remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.

Low level moisture has increased, but the clear sky and near
calm winds should help temperatures fall to dew point levels and
then temperatures and dew points will drift slowly downward
until daybreak. More patchy river, lake and swamp fog should
form, some of which could be locally dense by sunrise. Lows
mainly in the lower/mid 60s, with some mid/upper 50s across
northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper and low level ridging holds over our region and a weak
wind shift boundary is expected to drift south through our
region later Monday and Monday night. The core of the low level
heat is still expected to be centered north but enough of the
low level thermal ridge will be over the rest of the
northeastern U.S. to give us highs well into the 80s to around
90 Monday and Tuesday. The humidity will continue to make it
feel much like summer.

By Wednesday, the upper ridging flattens a bit with the approach
of upper troughing from the west, and the low level thermal
ridge gets pushed south. There are indications of some scattered
showers and storms developing in a pre frontal surface trough
over our region, which could limit high temperatures just a bit.
Highs Wednesday still well into the 80s but it may be more
difficult to hit 90 Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trend toward more seasonable temperatures is expected through the
long term portion of the forecast, although generally dry conditions
should persist.

A cold front should traverse the region Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Moisture availability looks quite limited, with most of
the low level moisture remaining off the eastern seaboard in
association with Tropical Cyclone Maria. However, scattered showers
could occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures Thursday morning
should fall into the 50s and 60s, warmest across the mid Hudson
Valley region.

In the wake of the front, a more progressive mid/upper level
tropospheric flow is expected to develop. A few fast moving upper
level impulses within this flow could bring a some showers to
portions of the region late Friday through early Saturday. Also,
some Lake Enhanced showers could occur across portions of the
southern Adirondacks Thursday. Otherwise, generally dry conditions
are expected at this time. Temperatures will trend toward more
seasonable levels, with daytime highs initially ranging from the
lower 60s to mid 70s Thursday, then cooling to the 50s to mid 60s
Friday-Sunday. Overnight lows should mainly be in the 40s for lower
elevations, with some 30s across higher terrain. Some frost could
occur Sat/Sun mornings across portions of the region, particularly
within the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place
over the region today into tonight.

Clear skies, and calm winds with an increase of low-level
moisture increases the threat for radiational mist/fog at some
of the terminals this morning. The greatest threat for IFR/LIFR
conditions due to radiational fog will be at KGFL/KPSF
especially between 08Z-13Z. KALB may have a brief period of
IFR/LIFR fog between 10Z-12Z, and a TEMPO was used here. There
is a pretty good threat of shallow fog from 08Z-13Z near the
airport. KPOU will be mainly VFR though we did put a brief TEMPO
from 10Z-12Z too for IFR patchy mist down to 2SM. After 13Z,
the mist/fog and low stratus should quickly dissipate due to
sunshine and the strong subsidence with the ridge.

VFR conditions should prevail from the late morning through the
afternoon with few-sct cirrus and few-sct cumulus around. A VCSH
group was used at KPSF, as a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms
may develop over the western New England higher terrain.

Winds will be calm this morning, and become variable in
direction during the late morning into the afternoon 5 KT or
less.  Expect calm winds to return tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range tonight and
Monday night. RH values will drop to 40 to 60 percent Monday
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Light and variable north to northeast winds tonight will trend
east and southeast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The
next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 24-26:

Albany NY:
September 24th/Sunday: New Record
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
September 24th/Sunday: New Record
September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007
September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959 only hit 90F today
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JVM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
CLIMATE...ALY staff

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion