Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedJan-18-2018 05:06 

NOAA Albany Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KALY 180959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
459 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected through
today, except for some lake effect snow showers across the
western Adirondacks. An upper level disturbance may bring
additional snow showers tonight into early Friday for areas
mainly north and west of Albany. Fair weather, with a gradual
warming trend is expected for this upcoming weekend.


As of 400 AM EST...Tranquil conditions with cold temperatures
exist across the region early this morning, as a small area of
high pressure has allowed for decoupling of winds and good
radiational cooling conditions with a fresh snow pack in place.
Temperatures are mainly in the single digits to near zero. Skies
are mainly clear, although mostly cloudy conditions occurring
across the western and southern Adirondacks due to moisture off
Lake Ontario. These areas should remain mostly cloudy through
much of the day, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere.

There will be increasing chances for lake effect snow showers
across the western Adirondacks today, as the surface ridge of
high pressure flattens out and westerly flow becomes better
aligned in the low levels. Conditional lake-induced instability
will yield mainly scattered snow showers over northern Herkimer
and Hamilton counties, with greater coverage north and west of
Old Forge closer to the Tug Hill. The lake effect activity
should be light due to very low inversion heights of around 850
mb. So only dusting to an inch of snow is expected across this
limited area. Elsewhere it will be dry with seasonably cold
temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s this afternoon.


A fast-moving and compact short wave trough will approach from
the upper Great Lakes and move across the region tonight. The
main forcing will be north of Albany, with limited moisture
associated with this system. Will mention isolated to scattered
snow showers with the passage of the disturbance, with the
better chances for some minor accumulations across the
western/southern Adirondacks. Areas from around the Capital
District south will just see an increase in cloud cover.

On Friday, it will be mainly dry in wake of the disturbance
with gradually decreasing cloud cover. There still could be a
few light lake effect/upslope snow showers over the western
Adirondacks, with only a dusting in some spots. Temperatures
will start to moderate, although with the fresh snow pack in
place the moderation will be tempered on Friday with highs
expected to be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Dry and tranquil conditions forecast for Friday night through
Saturday night, with more of a moderation in temperature. Even
overnight lows will start to warm to above normal readings
Friday night, with even milder temperatures on Saturday as
warmer air aloft moves in. Still, with the snow on the ground we
will need decent mixing to allow temps to reach forecast highs,
but this appears likely based on the expected pressure gradient
with breezy westerly flow developing. Will mention upper 30s to
mid 40s, which will allow for some snow melt to occur.
Temperatures will drop back below freezing Saturday night with
20s in most areas, which is still well above normal for January.


Guidance remains in fairly good agreement with regards to the
longwave pattern that nearly zonal flow across the region will be
replaced by ridging occurring ahead of an approaching closed low
Monday. The closed low is expected to pass over the Great Lakes
region sometime Monday night into Tuesday night with it deepening as
northern and southern stream energy interact. Guidance is similar
with the track but differ with the timing. Have used guidance from
the Weather Prediction Center for the timing which favors the slower
ECMWF over the faster GFS.  Also of note, guidance has trended colder
with temperatures but still above normal Sunday through Tuesday.
Indications are the system should occluded as it moves through. With
the passage of the system there is agreement a colder, seasonable
airmass will be ushered back in.

Mainly dry weather Sunday with above normal temperatures with highs
mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Increasing chances for some light
warm air advection precipitation Sunday night and more so Monday.
The synoptic forcing looks rather weak as will still have ridging
aloft. Initially will be cold enough for snow with some mixed
precipitation expected before a change over to mainly cold rain on
Monday with highs only in the 30s.

Best chances for precipitation are expected Monday night and Tuesday.
P-types get complicated for Monday night as temperatures should
drop off some and but be mainly in the 30s. At this time, expecting
rain and snow with some sleet. Temperatures are expected to warm into
the low to mid 40s ahead of the occluded boundary Tuesday for plain
rain to occur across the local area except across the western and
southern Adirondacks where temperatures should stay in the 30s so
rain/snow expected. At this time expecting around an inch of QPF but
not all as rain so there is much uncertainty on what the impact
could be the ice jams in the area.

Steady precipitation expected to taper off to snow showers Tuesday
night as colder air is ushered back into the region. With strong cold
advection temperatures expected to drop into the teens and 20s.  The
threat for isolated to scattered snow showers continues in the cyclonic
flow in the wake of the system especially along the favored westerly
upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and southern Greens of Vermont.
High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be seasonable in the
mid 20s to upper 30s.


The coastal low which has developed off the southeast coast will
deepen and move northeastward out to sea through the TAF period.
In the meantime, high pressure will continue to build in from the
south and west at the surface. While aloft an upper level disturbance
will move over the region late tonight which may result in some
snow showers mainly north and west of the Hudson River Valley after

Mainly VFR conditions will dominate. Mainly clear skies overnight
with some lower level stratocumulus around 3-3.5 kft AGL expected
to impact KALB/KPSF/KGFL later this morning. Cirrus clouds will
stream in this evening.

Light to calm winds overnight with a westerly flow developing
Thursday and increasing to 9-13 knots with gusts mainly in the
teens at KALB and KPSF during the day.


Thursday Night to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.


Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A
gradual warming trend will occur beginning this weekend,
although the degree of warming is not expected to be as
significant as what occurred last week. We will monitor trends
in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams.

In terms of precipitation, only some snow showers are expected
through Friday, with generally dry conditions expected over the
upcoming weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and/or rain is
possible early next week, although details on precipitation
types and amounts are uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.





NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion