Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedNov-17-2017 14:01 

NOAA National Forecast Discussion

Short Range Forecast Discussion...amended
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 17 2017 - 12Z Sun Nov 19 2017

...Heavy precipitation is expected across the Northwest, Intermountain
West, Upper Midwest, and Northeast...

The main attraction this period is a complex low pressure area/set of
frontal waves moving from Wyoming and the central Plains which intensifies
as it moves by the southern Great Lakes on an east-northeast heading.  In
advance of this system, record high temperatures and critical fire weather
conditions (per guidance from the Storm Prediction Center) are expected
across southeast New Mexico and northwestern Texas on Friday in the wake
of a dry line caused by very warm and dry downsloped air moving off the
southern Rockies. 

Cold air aloft and onshore flow from the Pacific brings in heavy rain and
higher elevation snow across the Intermountain West today.  A building
surface high over the Great Basin in the cyclone's wake could lead to
gusty offshore winds across southern California late Friday and Saturday. 
Once the strengthening low taps moisture from the Gulf of Mexico Friday
night, heavy rain develops across the Upper Midwest Friday night which
streaks east-northwest into the Northeast late Saturday.  By Sunday
morning, lake effect snows are expected in the lee of the Great Lakes
which are expected to spread into the central Appalachians.  The system
brings cooler air in its wake through the central Plains late Friday
night, Mississippi Valley by late Saturday, and into the East on Sunday as
surface high pressure builds into the southern Plains.

On the heels of this system, a strong disturbance aloft moves towards the
Pacific Northwest which by Sunday morning brings heavy rain to the Olympic
Peninsula of Washington and the northern Washington Cascades.


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

NWS WPC Office Area Forecast Discussion