60°F
Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedJul-25-2017 00:41 
 

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242342
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242342
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located more than 1000 miles east of the Big Island of
Hawaii, on Hurricane Hilary, located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Irwin, located several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days.  Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds
associated with Hurricane Hilary.  The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GREG (EP2/EP072017)
    ...GREG HOLDING STEADY WITH 45-MPH WINDS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of GREG was located near 14.8, -134.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm GREG

  • Tropical Storm GREG Public Advisory Number 31
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250232 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...GREG HOLDING STEADY WITH 45-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 134.9W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 134.9 West. Greg is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Greg is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Advisory Number 31
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250232 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 134.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 134.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 134.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 135.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 137.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 138.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 134.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Discussion Number 31
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The cloud pattern of Greg has changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center of the storm remains covered up by an area of deep convection that has increased in intensity during the past few hours. The latest Dvorak classifications are largely unchanged from earlier, and the initial wind speed estimate remains 40 kt for this advisory. This intensity estimate is also in fairly close agreement with the earlier scatterometer data. Greg has made the expected turn to the west-northwest on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The models suggest that Greg should move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next couple of days as the ridge to the north of the system weakens a little. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected in 2 to 3 days when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest model consensus aids. The tropical storm is still over relatively warm 27 deg C waters and in a low wind shear environment. The environment along the projected path of Greg is expected to become hostile during the next couple of days, with the cyclone forecast to move into a progressively drier air mass and over waters cooler than 26 deg C beginning in about 24 h. In addition, a significant increase in northwesterly wind shear is expected to begin in 36 to 48 h. These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening trend, and Greg is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the bulk of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.8N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.3N 137.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.1N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.0N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 15.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250232 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Graphics
    Tropical Storm GREG 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 02:39:03 GMT

    Tropical Storm GREG 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 03:25:02 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
    ...HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Hilary was located near 15.0, -105.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Hilary

  • Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 105.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250231 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 15
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250235 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Recent microwave satellite images indicate that Hilary has developed a tight banding eye feature with a diameter of less than 10 nmi. Deep convection with cloud tops to -85C within an elongated CDO has continued to pulse since the previous advisory, likely due to some modest high-level shear induced by a large convective complex located a couple hundred nmi southeast of Hilary's center. However, that convective cloud mass has recently been showing signs of waning, so that negative influence will likely begin to abate fairly soon. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB at 0000Z. Since that time, the CDO has become more distinct and NHC objective intensity estimates have been ranging between 82-88 kt during the past 2 hours. As a result, the advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. Hilary is forecast to move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. With the exception of the more northerly GFS model -- which had a similar poleward bias with Fernanda -- the rest of the NHC model guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, only minor speed adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. Although some binary interaction with TS Irwin is still possible, Hilary is expected to be the larger and more dominant circulation, resulting in Irwin being pulled poleward within Hilary's wake on days 3-5. The small eye and tight inner-core banding features noted in recent microwave imagery, along with large-scale low vertical wind shear conditions and favorable thermodynamics, argues for some rapid intensification to occur during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, some adjustment of the eye and inner-core wind field is possible, which has resulted in a leveling off of Hilary's intensity forecast in the 24-to 48-h period. By 72 hours and beyond, the combination of decreasing SSTs to less than 26C along with some modest westerly wind shear should produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and ECMWF intensity predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250232 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 34 X 26(26) 30(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 1(58) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 55(83) 1(84) 1(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 2(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) 1(33) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 3(28) X(28) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 34(40) 4(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 10(60) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 6(28) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Hurricane Hilary Graphics
    Hurricane Hilary 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 02:42:28 GMT

    Hurricane Hilary 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 03:32:07 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
    ...IRWIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Irwin was located near 15.2, -118.2 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Irwin

  • Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...IRWIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.2W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.2 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Irwin has been gradually strengthening throughout the day. Satellite images show that deep convection has been persisting over the center and in fragmented curved bands, especially over the south and west portions of the circulation. Microwave images indicate that the system is vertically titled from south to north, likely due to southerly shear. The latest Dvorak CI numbers are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB. These estimates and higher ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt. Irwin is crawling west-northwestward, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/3 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through early Tuesday as a weak mid-level ridge remains in place to the north of the storm. A west-southwestward motion is expected between 24 and 72 h as Hurricane Hilary approaches from the east. Beyond that time, the track forecast is very challenging as the models remain quite divergent with the spread being more than 700 n mi at day 5. The UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS global models show Irwin rotating around the east side of the circulation of Hilary and ultimately merging with that hurricane. The CMC model shows some binary interaction between the tropical cyclones, but keeps the systems separate, and the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show no interaction between the systems and continue to move Irwin westward. The NHC track forecast favors the global models and shows a slow northward motion on days 4 and 5. Needless to say, the long range track forecast is of low confidence. The environmental conditions should support some additional strengthening during the next day or so, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Thereafter, an increase in vertical wind shear, associated with the outflow of Hilary, and slightly cooler waters along the forecast track should cause a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and in fair agreement with the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 120W 34 5 85(90) 5(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 X 53(53) 18(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) 1(73) 15N 120W 64 X 27(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 16(35) 4(39) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
    Tropical Storm Irwin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 02:41:39 GMT

    Tropical Storm Irwin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 03:40:01 GMT ]]>