69°F
Crown Heights Area, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
UpdatedSep-25-2017 02:01 
 

NOAA Tropical Storm Forecasts

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250538
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane for


Hurricane Lee


Hurricane for


Hurricane Maria

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250537
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pilar, located near the west coast of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the
border of Guatemala and Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Some development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it meanders just off
the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
    ...PILAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Pilar was located near 21.9, -106.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar

  • Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 6A
    Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250537 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 1200 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...PILAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 106.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes northward to Bahia Tempehuaya, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Pilar is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move along or just west of the coast of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Pilar is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa through Monday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in a portion of the warning area. These conditions will gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA... AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 106.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 106.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Satellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength this evening. The center of the system is difficult to locate, but extrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary images suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas Marias. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some of the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could be a little conservative. Pilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the tropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of western Mexico. This land interaction combined with an increase in south-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or less. It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could dissipate sooner than shown here. A long term motion has been northward at 8 kt. A slower north to north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast lies closest to the ECMWF and UKMET models. The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of Sinaloa during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250230 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 27 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MAZATLAN 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics
    Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 05:37:47 GMT

    Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:35:35 GMT ]]>